"The fact is, in my subjective opinion, that this [war] will end in some kind of talks. This will not necessarily be very favourable for Ukraine, yet I think both countries are exhausted by war. Especially as we see [US] President Trump’s eagerness to somehow end the conflict. […] My biggest question is Russia’s behaviour and what they plan to do next," Jauniškis told public radio LRT on Wednesday.
The VSD director says Russia will need to recover from war, but he doubts that its strategy or intentions will change.
"They will probably regain strenght and then start looking for the next target. Whatever the case, we clearly see Mr Putin’s rhetoric, we see the entire elite’s rhetoric. […] I believe we must prepare for a long confrontation – perhaps not for war in the nearest future but for a potential conflict in years to come, once Russia recovers and starts looking and considering how to test NATO," said Jauniškis.
He does not rule out that Russia will relocate some of its forces closer to NATO countries, including Lithuania, once the war in Ukraine ends,
He did not predict when a potential conflict might occur, stating that this would depend on the situation in Ukraine, the overall geopolitical situation and the stance of Western leaders.
In the National Threat Assessment published in March 2024, the VSD concluded that Russia was preparing for a long-lasting confrontation with NATO and had resources both to continue the war in Ukraine and expand its military capabilities in the Western direction.