Provocations are likely on Wednesday and also non-influential but aggressive groups fueling public unrest might take advantage of the day, it said.
"Pro-Kremlin actors, spreaders of COVID conspiracy theories as well as persons interested in the radicalization of public sentiments and destabilization of the situation in the country are calling for provocations directly or through hints, especially on social media," the SSD said in a statement.
It also said it had warned previously of a higher risk of the outbreak of violence during protests, taking into account the recent tendency in Lithuania and other Western countries.
"Besides peaceful participants, recent events have also attracted promoters of political extremism, supporters of the Kremlin and Minsk regimes, as well as persons with tendencies towards aggression," the intelligence service said. "The SSD believes such events are likely during the February 16 mass events."
The department has also provided information on possible provocation risks to decision-makers and responsible institutions.
Held outside the Seimas on August 10, 2021, a protest against pandemic restrictions eventually evolved into riots. More than 100 people were later charged as part of a pre-trial investigation.
Protesters also expressed their discontent during the January 13 commemoration outside the parliament when they booed Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte and Speaker of the Seimas Viktorija Cmilyte-Nielsen off.