Speaking at the Congress of Free Russia in Lithuania, Kremlin critics Mikhail Khodorkovsky and Garry Kasparov as well as Franco-American novelist Jonathan Littell agreed that the outcome of the war, now in its seventh month, would depend on weapons, which the West could send to Ukraine.
They noted, however, that the West was not yet interested in supplying weaponry, which could lead to a breakthrough to the advantage of Ukraine.
“If the ideas, which can be seen in discussions of Western politicians, i.e. that Ukraine should not be allowed to lose but in the way that would not make Putin feel defeat, that Ukraine could go too far with the weapons at its disposal, become a tendency, I’m afraid that the consequences will be grave,” Khodorkovsky said.
Kasparov urged to fight against the narrative that “it is necessary to help Ukraine but it cannot win”, therefore it is necessary to negotiate with the Kremlin. This, according to him, was the specific goal pursued by Russia’s propaganda.
Littell spoke about the prevailing feeling that the volumes of weapons supplied to Ukraine by the West, in particular the United States, “are such as to make sure that they would enable Ukraine to avoid defeat but are not sufficient for Ukraine to win”.
“I think Putin’s nuclear threats had a big effect on the West. I know people in France’s government who view these threats very seriously and they are very much afraid that Putin would use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine if it appeared to him that he was losing… This explains why Ukraine is not given enough weapons to enable it to crush Russia [Russian invading forces],” he said.
Participants of the discussion also emphasized that the most difficult stage of war would come in winter but Ukrainians were psychologically more ready to withstand the challenges of the cold season and the desperate fight, as opposed to Europe that faced a surge of energy prices but preferred not to get involved in direct conflict with Russia.