Russia currently has a limited ability to engage in fighting against any NATO country, according to intelligence assessments. However, the aggressor may develop a capability sufficient to launch limited military action against one or more Alliance countries.
“Russia’s ability to use military force against NATO countries is currently very limited, as most of its conventional capabilities are dedicated to the war against Ukraine. In the near term, Russia is likely to have sufficient human, financial, and military resources not only to continue fighting in Ukraine at a similar intensity but also to increase its military capabilities,” the assessment reads.
“This may encourage the Russian leadership to use military force in the mistaken belief that NATO should not be able to react in time and that Russia should be able to localise the conflict and bring it to a swift and favourable end,” it noted.
The intelligence report says Russia’s main objective in its war against Ukraine has not changed since 2014. It seeks to turn Ukraine into a dependent state and to compel Western democracies to acknowledge Russia’s right to interfere in the internal affairs of its sovereign neighbours.
Having failed to achieve its objectives through manipulation and influence operations against Ukraine, Russia chose to utilise military force in 2022.
“Russia openly declares that peace with Ukraine is only achievable on its own terms, which state that both Ukraine and the West must accept defeat and acknowledge that Russia’s aggression was lawful,” analysts said.
“A diplomatic solution to the conflict is unlikely, as this would simply see Russia return to the same stalemate that Vladimir Putin decided to reverse in February 2022 by attacking Ukraine. Russia’s military measures are proving effective. This is demonstrated by Russia’s regained confidence in its armed forces, the expansion of Ukrainian territories under occupation, and the destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure,” the assessment said.
The Kremlin has the resources to continue the war for years, according to the intelligence agencies. The war is popular with the society despite the fact that Russia suffers massive human losses and faces problems in the financial system, economic stagnation in sectors unrelated to the military industry, and foreign trade sustainable only because of smuggling and shadow schemes.
“Both the regime and most of the Russian population believe that the war in Ukraine is not against Ukrainians, but rather against the West. Although almost 60 percent of Russians believe that the war in Ukraine could escalate into a war with NATO, this likely only strengthens,” the assessment reads.
In addition, Russia continues its military reform and plans to increase the number of troops to 1.5 million.
Given the current Russia continues to strengthen its military power 21 trends in the growth of military personnel, this ambition is feasible, the analysts say.
Russia’s stance is also reinforced by its growing contacts with China, Iran and North Korea, according to the assessment.
The National Threat Assessment by the State Security Department of the Republic of Lithuania (VSD) and the Defence Intelligence and Security Service under the Ministry of National Defence of the Republic of Lithuania (AOTD) is presented to the public in accordance with Articles 8 and 26 of the Law on Intelligence of the Republic of Lithuania.
The document provides consolidated, unclassified assessment of threats and risks to national security of Lithuania prepared by both intelligence services. It assesses events, processes, and trends that correspond to the intelligence requirements approved by the State Defence Council. The assessment is based on the information available before 14 February 2025.