"Speaking specifically about potential effects for Lithuania, if there are 20-25% tariffs on the EU and some countermeasures are introduced, we are talking about the strictest scenario, the effect would be up to 1 percentage point lower GDP over four years," Chairman of the Board of the Bank of Lithuania Gediminas Šimkus told public radio LRT on Tuesday.
Earlier, Lithuania’s central bank forecast that Lithuania’s gross domestic product (GDP) would grow by 2.9% in 2025 and 3% both in 2026 and 2027.
According to Šimkus, the impact of tariffs on Lithuania is mitigated by small export volume to the United States, amounting to just 5% of total production. Additionally, tariff effects would be further reduced by US intentions apply exemptions for high added value imports.
However, Šimkus stressed that there has been uncertainty in the markets since Donald Trump became US President, and this has already affected Lithuania’s economy despite new tariff fears.
"Uncertainty affects business sentiment, willingness to invest, and this influences consumer sentiment, willingness to consume. There are many things that are already negatively affecting Lithuania’s economy," said Šimkus.
Last week, the USA announced tariffs for two major trading partners, 34% for Chinese imports and 20% for EU imports. 24% tariffs were imposed on Japan, 26% on India, while a "baseline" 10% tariff applies for many other countries.